The latest data on the U.S. labor market will be the investors' main focus this week, with implications for consumer spending and Federal Reserve policy.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, conducted on the last business day of August. The consensus forecast is for 8.8 million job openings, which is about even with the total from a month earlier.
September Jobs Report
Then, on Friday, the BLS will release the September jobs report. Economists are forecasting an increase of 155,000 nonfarm payrolls, compared to 187,000 in August. The unemployment rate is seen ticking down to 3.7% from 3.8%.
Other Economic Data to Watch
Other economic data to watch this week includes the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for September on Monday, followed by the Services equivalent on Wednesday.
Notable Earnings Reports
There will also be a handful of notable earnings reports this week. On Tuesday, McCormick releases quarterly results, followed by Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Levi Strauss on Thursday.
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for September. The consensus estimate is for a 48 reading, slightly higher than the August figure.
The Census Bureau reports construction spending statistics for August. Total construction spending is expected to increase 0.6% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.98 trillion, which would be a record high.
McCormick reports third-quarter fiscal-2023 results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Releases Job Openings Survey
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists have predicted that there will be approximately 8.8 million job openings on the last business day of August, which is similar to the data from July. Although job openings have decreased by 27% since their peak in March 2022, they still remain above historical averages. During the September Federal Open Market Committee press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that while the jobs-to-workers gap has lessened, there is still a greater demand for labor than the available supply.
On this day, ADP will release its National Employment Report for September. It is expected that the economy will add 140,000 private-sector jobs, following an increase of 177,000 in August. The service-providing sector continues to lead in job gains, particularly in education and health services. Additionally, The ISM will release its Services PMI for September. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 53.5, which is one point lower than the August reading.
Several companies, namely Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Levi Strauss, will be holding conference calls to discuss their quarterly results. Additionally, The Department of Labor will report on initial jobless claims for the week ending September 30. In recent weeks, jobless claims have been decreasing and have averaged around 211,000 per week in September compared to an average of 241,500 in the three prior months through August.
The BLS will release the jobs report for September on this day. The consensus estimate is that nonfarm payrolls will increase by 155,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to slightly decrease from 3.8% to 3.7%. Jobs growth has slowed down in the recent past compared to the rapid pace of the previous two years. The average monthly gain for the three months through August was approximately 150,000, in contrast to the average increase of 438,000 jobs per month for the preceding two years until May 2023.