Takeda Pharmaceutical is preparing to release its third-quarter results on Thursday. Here are the key details you should know:

Net Profit Forecast

Analysts predict that Takeda Pharmaceutical will experience a 34% decrease in net profit, amounting to ¥78.165 billion ($529.6 million) for the quarter ending on December 31. This is a significant decline from the ¥119.1 billion net profit recorded in the same period last year.

Revenue Forecast

According to a poll conducted by Quick, third-quarter revenue is expected to have fallen by 11% compared to the previous year, amounting to ¥976.10 billion.

Stock Performance

In 2024, Takeda's stock has risen by 6.4% as of Tuesday, rebounding from a 13% drop in the October-December period. The closing price on Tuesday was ¥4,314.

Key Points to Watch

  • Revenue Growth: Notable revenue growth was driven by several key drugs in the second quarter. Sales of ulcerative colitis drug Entyvio increased by 12% to ¥199.7 billion. However, sales of Vyvanse, a drug for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, declined by 7.3% to ¥103.1 billion due to the loss of U.S. market exclusivity in late August. Investors are closely monitoring sales figures for these key drugs.

  • Projected Net Profit: Takeda has projected a 71% decrease in net profit to ¥93.00 billion for the fiscal year ending in March. Similarly, revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% to ¥3.980 trillion. Any changes to this guidance provided by management will be closely scrutinized by investors.

  • Debt and Leverage: Takeda's net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio increased from 2.6 at the end of March to 2.9 at the end of September. Investors are paying close attention to any shifts in leverage numbers.

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