News

Wholesale Inventories in the U.S. Decline for the Sixth Consecutive Month

4.9

Charles M. Hall

October 10, 2023

According to the Commerce Department, wholesale inventories in the U.S. experienced a 0.1% decline in August. This marks the sixth straight monthly decrease, reflecting a concerning trend in the market.

August Performance Meets Expectations

The drop in inventories for August aligns with the expectations of economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. Additionally, it is in line with advance estimates. In July, inventories fell by a revised 0.3%, further emphasizing the downward trajectory.

Motor Vehicle Inventories Buck the Trend

However, amidst the overall decline, there was a positive sign in the motor vehicle sector. Inventories of motor vehicles rose by 2.1%, following a 0.3% gain in July. This growth provides a glimmer of hope within a challenging market landscape.

Wholesalers Witness Growth in Sales

Despite the decline in inventories, sales at wholesalers experienced a boost. In August, sales increased by 1.8% following a 1.2% gain in the previous month. This upward trend comes after four consecutive months of declines and suggests potential market recovery.

Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Hits Lowest Level Since Last October

In a positive development, the inventory-to-sales ratio dropped from 1.39 months to 1.36 months in August. This marks its lowest level since last October. The decreasing ratio indicates that companies find it easier to sell their products—an encouraging sign for businesses.

Inventory Levels as an Indicator of Economic Performance

It is important to recognize the significant role inventories play in calculating the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The buildup of unwanted inventories has historically served as an early sign of a looming recession—a trend that should be monitored closely.

Market Responses

Despite the challenging inventory data, the stock market demonstrated positivity on Tuesday. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 (SPX) showed upward movements. At the same time, yields on the 10-year Treasury note (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) experienced a sharp decline, reaching 4.67%.